How to Measure SMS ROI on Square (Beyond Open Rates)

Pick a fixed attribution window

Common practice: count purchases within N days of send (ReturnFlowHQ uses 7 days). Pick one window and stick to it so week-over-week comparisons mean something. Changing the window every week makes “ROI” a mood, not a metric.

Track the metrics that change decisions

Delivery rate, opt-out rate, reply rate, attributed visits, and attributed revenue beat vanity “sent” counts. Segment by active vs lapsed so you do not average away the truth.

• Delivery: is the channel healthy?
• Opt-out: is copy/frequency burning trust?
• Attributed tickets + $: is this worth scaling?

Separate correlation hygiene from perfection

Not every return visit is caused by the text. Still, consistent attribution plus holdout thinking (or at least segment baselines) beats no measurement at all. Directionally right beats precisely wrong open rates.

Cost side of the ledger

Include message fees, platform fees, and the people time to approve batches. A “cheap” tool that needs a marketer every afternoon can lose to a quieter automated stack.

Operator checklist

Weekly: delivery + opt-outs. Monthly: attributed revenue vs SMS cost. Quarterly: which angles and segments deserve more volume — and which should be retired.

How ReturnFlowHQ reports

Purchases on Square after SMS land in a fixed window so operators can see return visits tied to sends — not just a send log that ends at the carrier.

Common mistakes to avoid

Buying cold phone lists, blasting the same coupon to everyone, skipping STOP language, and measuring only “messages sent” instead of return visits. Fix those before you scale volume. A smaller clean list with attributed tickets will beat a huge hostile list every quarter.

• No purchased SMS lists
• Segment by visit cadence and relevance
• Track attributed visits, not vanity sends
• Exclude same-day visitors from marketing batches